Fall Outlook
This summer, I attended the Keller Williams Mega Camp in Austin, Texas, and gained valuable insight into the US economy and the real estate market. Keller Williams leadership continues to be a front-runner in analyzing and predicting market trends and real estate innovation.
US Economy
In an effort to curb inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates consistently since March 2022. The federal funds target rate range is currently between 5.25% and 5.50%, which can feel alarming since we’ve experienced record low rates since 2008. Yet, today’s interest rates are low compared to the record high levels from the 1980’s. Per the chart below, the 2023 interest rate of 6.6% is below the 50-year historical average of 7.81%.
Concerns around inflation and higher interest rates have weighed on consumer confidence in the US economy. Economic data, however, would actually suggest the economy is strong. For example, up to a 6% unemployment rate would qualify as a sign of a healthy economy; the current US unemployment rate is 3.6%. Today there are 9.5 million job openings and 5.9 million people unemployed. Experts have referred to the existing economic conditions as a “rolling recession”, with some sectors performing well while other sectors struggle. Consumers will have a strong emotional reaction to economic factors like inflation, interest rates, and higher prices since they are affected on a personal level, making it harder to see the strength in the economy.